Hunter Lyons stepped up his game last week and really turned things around with an 8-5-1 record to get him back over .500 at 23-22-1. Here are his week 15 NFL picks:
For many of you out there this weekend is a crucial one for fantasy leagues. Many are either setting lineups for your first or second round of playoffs and it can be a tense time. I am no different. Coming from someone who has won 2 NCAA brackets and is the reigning champion of the coveted ‘Savage Cup’ in the last 12 months, I would like to consider myself somewhat of a fantasy sports savant. Translation: my real life leaves much to be desired but in my make believe fantasy life things are going pretty sweet. I’m so hot right now I might even start a World of Warcraft account just so I can continue this heater. As a self-proclaimed fantasy guru (even if no one else agrees) I have a few pointers for those out their fighting for their fantasy lives.
- Stick to what got you here. Earlier in the week I seriously considered and discussed with a friend starting Cam Newton over Aaron Rodgers. Fortunately someone sent a sign from above and decided to put Cam Newton in a fender bender before I could make such an egregious decision. (In all honesty happy to hear that Cam wasn’t more seriously injured)
- Go with your gut. Watch your ranking shows, read your Matthew Berry articles and look at projections and then make your own call. After that, it’s out of your hands. Losing is one thing but losing because you second guessed yourself and made a decision based on something the little guy on NFL Network said is another. Trust your instincts, for better or worse.
- I don’t know if this will work because if we’re being honest I don’t have the definitive answer on who the creator is or if whoever it is cares about your fantasy football team, but its worth a shot. God probably hates football because it has been plucking thousands of men from their church pews to their couch for years so make sure to give him a little shout out in the morning.
- Remember it is only a game. Sure you may be ridiculed for the next 8 months if your team screws up this weekend. You may even spend some time crying in the fetal position in the backseat of your car. But it is meant to be fun. My main league consists of my 12 best friends from college who now live in 8 different states across the country. Many of us are trying our best to be somewhat respectable adults but fantasy football, even if it is a small portion of your week, allows you to reconnect with old friends and act like you’re 18 again.
And now, Week 15 picks, good luck to all.
Packers @ Bills- You think this is a face that can beat Aaron Rodgers?
Yeah me neither. PICK: Packers -4
Jaguars @ Ravens- A little revenge game for break out running back Justin Forsett this week as he was cut from the Jags in the 2014 offseason. Needless to say, hindsight being 20/20 that was a mistake, as well as offering Peyton Hillis Toby Gerhart to a long term deal. That’s not to say that Forsett would have the same success as he has with the Ravens who by far have a better line, but it is definitely worth noting as there is no way this game hasn’t been circled all year by the young back. With all that said, I’ve gotten burned too many times this year by these big spreads. It happened last week with both the Packers and Broncos, a team gets up 17-20 points and becomes complacent and takes their foot off the gas. They know there isn’t enough time for the other team to come back and they rely heavily on their run game. This is good in the football sense but for betting it can kill you. So even though I believe the Ravens will at one point or another be up by more than 20 on the Jags, I expect the Jags to somehow get the back door cover. PICK: JAGUARS +14
Bengals @ Browns- So it begins, the Johnny Football era has begun in Cleveland as Mike Pettine named him the starter for this weekend’s rivalry game against the Bengals. Although it happened much later than I had suspected, Brian Hoyer’s play had been too poor not to give their 1st round pick and fan favorite a shot. I’ve gone on record that I don’t think Johnny Manziel will be a successful quarterback in the league. That’s not to say he won’t have a career but I certainly don’t see any Pro Bowls in his future. I think he’s too small, lacks accuracy and as has been shown by other mobile quarterbacks in past years (Griffin, Newton, Vick Etc.) the physical towl that an NFL QB goes through on a weekly basis is just too much to stay healthy, especially for someone that is 6’ only when wearing heals. All that as well as the fact that there is a decent chance we get footage of Juanny Futbol doing blow with a Kardashian by summer 2015. But for the game this weekend, anytime you have two teams this close talent-wise and in a rivalry game, I tend to stay away. If I had to guess this game is going to come down to the last possession and I couldn’t tell you who comes out on top. PICK: PASS
Bucs @ Panthers- Carolina had quite the scare this week as their franchise quarterback flipped his truck on the highway; fortunately for Cam he was fine. Pictures of the wreck showed a pretty scary scene but were comforted by a smiling Newton laying down talking to paramedics. That hit was probably nothing compared to what his offensive line has done to him this year. Sorry that was too easy. With all that said, the line moved down to Carolina -3 from -5.5 when Derek Anderson was named starter for this weekend. This has the potential to be the worst game of the year and may be the 2014 NFC South’s masterpiece. PICK: HARD PASS
Texans @ Colts- Two of the biggest young stars in the NFL faceoff this weekend in what the league hope to be a rivalry for years to come. Watt vs. Luck, it has all the right story lines for a great rivalry. Defensive End vs. Quarterback, 5* vs. No Star, the Quiet QB vs. the Maniac D-End. Most of these kinds of rivalries are made up by or through the media with smack talk. But this is real. Opposite sides of the ball and division foes, both players, however different they seem to be, really just seem like those kinds of players where literally all they care about is football. Both Watt and Luck are aberrations of the typical NFL player, being able to be five tool players with their speed, size, intelligence, preparation and work ethic. This is definitely a game you want to have eyes on this weekend. As for the game itself, the Texans head to Indy as just short of a touchdown underdog. The Colts may beat good teams, but it’s very rarely by a blowout. Save for a Luck touchdown drive to put the Colts up 7, I think the Texans hang tough in this one. PICK: TEXANS +6.5
Raiders @ Chiefs- Alex Smith has long defended the idea of a ‘Game Manager’ as a quarterback. A QB that will facilitate to his playmakers and avoid mistakes, basically saying that this kind of quarterback won’t lose many games because of him, but he also won’t win many solely based off his performance. This has worked in the past for the Chiefs and Smith, they have a Top 5 defense and running back, with those two things, if you avoid the big mistakes you’re going to win a lot of football games. The joke all year with the Chiefs is the fact that they haven’t thrown a TD pass to one of their wide outs in over a calendar year. Sure tight ends Anthony Fasano and Travis Kelce have done damage through the air along with a great pass catching back in Jamal Charles, but at some point you have got to be able to make a big play down field to a wide receiver. That is why Alex Smith will always be an OK quarterback and never great. It happened last week against the Ravens where the Chiefs were down late and couldn’t throw passes longer than 10 yards. Albeit for a couple of questionable calls by officials and they might have won, but the fact remains that this team is built to hold leads, not come from behind. As far as the Raiders, it is clear that they still have a long way to go but if this year has proven anything is that they might finally have their franchise quarterback, which is a start. Raiders keep it close in Arrowhead. PICK: RAIDERS +10
Dolphins @ Patriots- I was high on the Dolphins last week. Ryan Tannehill showed flashes of brilliance and was finally playing the way he was expected to after being drafted in the first round a few years back. Not to say that I have given up on him in a week’s time but last week was definitely a step in the wrong direction. Similarly to Smith, I don’t know if Tannehill will ever be anything more than a game manager. He’s a big strong guy with great athleticism but I don’t know if that ever translates into anything more. As soon as the Dolphins got down to the Ravens it became clear that this team was not going to be able to come back. The Pats on the other hand continued their steamroll of the AFC taking down the Chargers on Sunday night. If you’ll remember it was the game between these two teams in the first week of the season that prompted QB guru Trent Dilfer that the Patriots were ‘Not a good football team.’ It appears that Mr. Dilfer knew about as much about this team as he did the latest hair products. Pats take care of business at home. PICK: PATRIOTS -7.5
Redskins @ Giants- Redskins, Giants, MetLife, Sunday, NFC East, football, RG3, nevermind, Colt McCoy, hook em horns, Vince Young, quarterbacks, Manning, no not that Manning, resting dumb face, 2 super bowls? Coaching, Gruden, no not that Gruden, hot seat, Coughlin, red face, Aaron Craft? Wrong sport, high draft picks, trading draft picks, poor decision making, front office, Daniel Snyder, racist, team name, native American not Indian, racist, logo, branding, Rovell, hatred, racists, Daniel Snyder, poor decisions, betting on Washington ever. PICK: NYG -5.5
Steelers @ Falcons- Are the Steelers good? I have been struggling with this team more than any other this year. They have big wins against the Colts, Texans and Bengals on the road, but also have losses to the Saints, Jets and pulled out a squeaker against the Titans a few weeks ago. Like a lot of NFL teams it looks like the Steelers play to their level of competition which is surprising due to the mass motivator that Mike Tomlin is. Big Ben has under the radar had one of his best years of his career and could surpass 5,000 yards passing for the first time in his career. But this team lives and dies by its run game behind LeVeon Bell. It pains me to say this as a Michigan fan but Bell has solidified himself as arguably the best back in the league with has combination of speed, size and vision doing it both on the ground as well as being a great pass catching back. Both teams are playing for their playoff lives at this point but I think the difference is that the Steelers know that they truly have the potential to make a run if they make it, whereas the Falcons know the only reason they’ll make it to the playoffs is because of a flawed system that allows a 7-9 team a chance at a Super Bowl. PICK: STEELERS -2
Broncos @ Chargers- Chicken parm you taste so good. PICK: BRONCOS -4
Jets @ Titans- Name a more meaningless professional football game being played this weekend, you can’t. There is virtually nothing on the line here other than jockeying for position of the 1st pick in next year’s draft. If the Titans have any common sense they would throw this game to have first dibs on Mariota next spring because it has been very apparent that Zach Mettenberger will most likely have a better career in selling insurance than being an NFL QB. I spoke at length last week about how this was the beginning of the end for Rex Ryan, but one thing he has always been able to do is rally his troops and get the best out of them. His players seem to always really like them and are not the type of team to lie down regardless of circumstance. This pick has more to do with the Titan ineptness rather than the Jets skill. But I think NYJ gets it done. PICK: JETS -3
Vikings @ Lions- Win out and the Lions can clinch the NFC North. As other teams vying for that spot have the misfortune of playing much harder teams, the Lions get somewhat of a gift, playing a young Vikings team at home. Although it may be an easier road than those others have this week, I wouldn’t sell the Vikings short. They are a feisty team who along with their defense has a quarterback who looks as if he can be a real difference maker in the near future. With the stakes where they’re at and the reemergence of the Lions O, I think the home team takes care of business. PICK: LIONS -7
49ers @ Seahawks- Last week was the icing on the cake for a very disappointing season for the 49ers. A season that started with Super Bowl aspirations or at the very least be in contention in the West was capped off by an embarrassing performance against their cross-bay rival Raiders. The writing is on the wall now and it seems all but certain that Jim Harbaugh and possibly Colin Kaepernick will be gone after this year. Quite a fall from grace they have had. Seattle still very much needs this game to secure a Wild Card spot in the NFC because of the Cardinals somehow winning games regardless of their quarterback, similar to what Ohio State did this year. With all that said, this is still one of the biggest rivalry games in the league and just like the Cleveland/Cincinnati game when two teams hate each other anything can happen. The Seahawks have had a tough time closing games this year and have been backdoored a few times because of it. Ten is too many in this game so I’ll take the points. PICK: 49ers +10
Cowboys @ Eagles- Winner of this game puts them in sole possession of first place in the NFC East. After an embarrassing Thanksgiving day performance, I expect the Cowboys to come out with a lot of fire on Sunday. Looking back it was clear that at the time Tony Romo was in no place to be playing that game with his BROKEN BACK still bothering him. I literally just jammed my toe and almost took the rest of the day off. With a healthy Romo and Demarco Murray continuing to carry the load for this Cowboys team I think they are ripe for a playoff run. One other big factor that will be the difference this weekend is how the Cowboy can rush the passer. It has shown that under pressure Mark Sanchez gets flustered and makes poor decisions and the Cowboys have had a hard time getting to the passer this year. If the Cowboys front seven can get to Sanchez I think the Cowboys not only cover but win in Philly. PICK: Cowboys +4
After a BIG W last week on the Thursday night game our guest picker returns with a pick for the Monday night game, let’s keep it going with BIG BRENT’S WINNERS (BBW):
Saints @ Bears- Both teams are 5-8 and surprisingly enough, one of them still has a shot at making the playoffs. The saints have been winning on the road while the Bears haven’t been winning at all. I don’t particularly like this matchup but with the Saints still in the playoff hunt and Cutler giving a whole new meaning to the term “bear down,” look for the saints to show up and cover the spread at Soldier Field.
Hammer’s red hot holiday action: SAINTS -3
