From our resident gambling correspondent Hunter Lyons (@DetroitLyons), we have our week 9 NFL gambling picks.
Jacksonville @ Cincinnati
Opened at -13, but with the status of AJ Green’s foot still in question line moved down to -11. Jacksonville is 2-6 against the spread this year including last week against the Dolphins where they outgained Miami in total yards for the game. What that doesn’t show is the two Pick 6’s thrown for a total of 102 yards. With the Jags finally getting a run attack going with back-to-back 100 yard rushing performances by Denard Robinson, I see the Jags coming into Cincinnati and covering over a Bengal team that is in the middle of a tough 6 game stretch and without Giovanni Bernard. PICK: Jaguars +11
Broncos @ Patriots
Pats come in as a rare home dog in Foxboro. Brady and Bellichick have been nearly unbeatable at home for the last decade, including going 8-4 against the spread the past two years which in the eyes of the public have been ‘down years’. It’s well documented that Peyton Manning struggles on the road and outdoors especially against the Pats. With that said, the Broncos seem to be hitting stride just like last year. Injuries have depleted their backfield but it seems that anyone they plug in there can carry the load. It seems that every time the Broncos lose someone there is next man in line that fills that role, whether it’s Emmanuel Sanders taking the place of Eric Decker, or Juwan Thompson and CJ Anderson filling in for Montee Ball and Knowshon Moreno. With it being early in the week, I see the public pushing this number down because the Pats are a national team and are perceived as such. Gun to my head I pick the Pats to cover but you should really just stay away. PICK: Pass
Ravens @ Steelers
First time since 1991 that the Steelers have been underdogs in back-to-back home games which is a feat in and of itself. This line surprised me with the Ravens loss last week and the Steelers blow out of a Colts team that Vegas holds in high regards. The Steelers D is starting to hit midseason stride and on O they have one of the most deadly QB/RB/WR tandems in the league with Roethlisberger, Brown and Bell. I have two general rules of thumb in gambling, one being never bet Steelers/Ravens, the last 6 games have been decided by exactly 3 pts, and have split the series in the last 10. It’s a rivalry game and rivalry games mean you can throw the numbers out and assume it’s a coin flip. My second rule is a Home Dog (home team not favored) +2.5 and under is always great value. So what gives? The line may adjust by Sunday night but for the time being, I like the Steelers. PICK: Steelers +2.5
Buccaneers @ Browns
With no other easy way to put it, the Bucs are a horrible American football team. They have struggled throughout the year in almost every facet of the game and with no end in sight, trade talks loom around almost every skilled position including Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson. Even when they were in a game last week they had their hearts ripped out in OT on a fumble, scoop and score to lose the game. The Browns on the other hand are trending in the opposite direction, the Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten compared to the Bucs 3-7. With Ben Tate and their stable of running backs, I see the Browns taking it to the Bucs. PICK: Browns +6.5
